In the book, The Forgotten Ways, author Alan Hirsch identifies a problem that I’ve been wrestling with for several months now.
He says that the way we do church is working with fewer people all the time. What does the way we do church mean? It means the model of Christendom that has been followed for the past 1700 years or so and that most of us are a product of is becoming quickly ineffective in today’s world. I’m not talking styles of worship, high church or low church, mainline or independent, protestant or catholic. I’m talking about all of those churches combined. Just about every church in America can be described by three words: “Come to us.” That is it. We put on amazing services and do everything we can to communicate truth to the people who make the effort to come to “the box” for worship.
Let me explain it this way…
The Shrinking 40% - these are people for whom the “come to us” model works. We can put on great weekend services, and 40% of the people in our community are still attracted to, or at least not repelled by, that model. For some communities on the left or right coast—this may actually be 20% or less. Hirsch believes it might be 35% for America overall. For our church in northern Indiana, we are still relatively insulated from the coastal influence—and we believe it could be around 40%. Whether the correct number is 40% or 50% or higher—there probably isn’t a place in America where this number isn’t shrinking.
The Growing 60% – these are people who believe in God (whatever that means for them), have a respect for Jesus, and are on a spiritual journey, but they don’t consider the church (as we know it) as a resource to help them take steps. And it is likely they never will. They pursue their spirituality through culture, friendships, music, TV personalities, their own study of the Bible, self-help books and more. Research indicates “young adults today are less church-connected than prior generations were when they were in their 20s. But…they’re just about as spiritual as their parents and grandparents were at those ages.” An even newer study published a couple weeks ago indicates if the current trends continue, “the Millennial generation will see churches closing as quickly as GM dealerships,” this according to Thom Rainer, president of LifeWay Christian Resources. In the group’s survey of 1,200 18- to 29-year-olds, 72% say they’re “really more spiritual than religious.”
Here’s what I think we should do about the Shrinking 40% — I think we should still create amazing church services and knock the ball out of the park on everything we do inside the box. Why would we not? It’s working for a huge percentage of our community! We should do whatever works to attract them, introduce them to Jesus, help them grow in their faith, and motivate them to make a difference in the world.
But I don’t think we can ignore the Growing 60%. Up until now, I honestly don’t think I ignored them. I just didn’t think about them. I’m a statistics guy, and it is the statistics (that I talked about earlier) which are waking me up to a missional problem. Now that I’m aware of the Growing 60% –I can either ignore them (and in reality tell them to go to Hell), or I can do something about it.
I don’t even know what that means. I just know that as churches we have to figure out how to deliver the gospel of Jesus in a way that doesn’t require them to come to the box. Because attracting people to come to the box is only working for a Shrinking 40%. And the Growing 60% will never be reached that way.
It’s not either/or. It’s finding the genius of the AND.
We are creating a conversation about this in November. You should join us. But don’t wait until then—tell me your thoughts now.
33 Comments
What an awesome post Tim. I want to be a part of that conversation. I want our staff to be a part of it as well.
Thank you.
Dave
Very thought-provoking post. Going forward, I believe this will require some of us to create models for Christ-centered community that have very little in common with the church of today… and we can expect to be criticized and rejected by a large part of today's church. The old measurements (such as buildings, staff, programs, and attendance) will be totally irrelevant.
Tim, thank you for this post. I so appreciate the "AND" – taking a look at what is working today – and yet an honest look at what is to come. We cannot get stuck in any "system" – hopefully the "system" only exists for people anyway. I believe this reality of what is happening is not just a good idea – but it's vital – to make aware, discuss, think about, prepare for – it's really an opportunity that we are being afforded – if we will take it.
Thank you!
I had heard Hirsch talk about this while at Mountain Lake a few months ago and it still keeps me awake at night. His comment about all of fighting over the same 40% of people while the growing 60% essentially are on their way to hell disturbs me, as it should any ministry leader or church planter. But being disturbed is half the battle. What do we do about it? I wish I had an answer or even a suggestion, but I don't. However, I'm more than willing to say that I want our church and staff to put time and effort into figuring it out. I think that is step #1
I know you've hit the same sore spot I've been considering as well for some time. I grew up in the bible belt, I don't know anything different than the bible belt. But I know there's a world out there that doesn't even know what the bible belt is. How do you reach them? How do we (the church) shift our culture, come into 2010 and still yet not lose the message of Jesus Christ? I'm convinced we (the church) must change to meet the needs of the culture around us. The fun thing about that is the culture on the west coast will vary from the east coast and neither coast will look like the bible belt. Each of us will get to be individual churches, not copy cats of everyone else who's "doing it right" across America. Just like missionaries who spend so much time training to learn about the culture of the people group they are going to, we (the church in America) must also learn about the people group surrounding us. Then we can begin to figure out ways to share Jesus within that culture. It means being creative and thinking outside the "box". You know, the box that has four walls that we expect them to attend weekly.
For me the struggle is figuring out what is tradition, that I just can't seem to walk away from, and what is bible truth that I absolutely shouldn't walk away from! Growing up in the church means I have years and years of tradition in my memory. As a Leader I have to be willing to lay down the traditions of man and be willing to follow through with a creative idea that came from God but feels scary because it's not what I grew up doing, and it's not what everyone else across the country is doing either. It's different, therefore, it's scary. But if our ideas are coming from God and are leading people toward Him, can we really go wrong?
I think we may find it helpful to focus on some things that Jesus talked about, but that the Church has slacked on lately. Also, I think a few branding changes could possibly do wonders (I think it's at least worth a try)
1) we have a significant branding challenge, the 60% won't come b/c our the brand of Christianity is so ugly and tarnished in their minds, weighed down with negative, wrong (and right) perceptions that work against us. Therefore, what if we tried not using the word "Christian," not using the word "church" to describe our buildings, not using the word "baptist" or etc. What if we built community centers, coffee houses, book stores, etc – places that people can hang-out in, engage in, and also come to a worship meeting in.
2) I think we need to refocus on love & service. Many outsiders criticize Christians for not being much like Jesus. Jesus was SUPER clear, Love is the fulfillment of the law. Yet many churches believe that not smoking, not drinking, not having sex before marriage is the fulfillment of the law. We've lost focus on love. If we truly loved our neighbors, served them, gave sacrificially as the bible tells us to, we would have a Jesus-like aroma that would help overcome negative stereotypes, but more importantly we would be more biblical than not doing that.
I personally believe we need to use our resources more on loving and serving outsiders, and less on programs and staff (I know that sounds like heresy, I'd love to discuss further).
Well said Jesse.
Excellent, well put. As I have observed, a good portion of the american churches to often put on their christianity like a sunday suit for church services and then to some extent it is removed for the rest of the week. The 60% don't have to be real observant because our lives speak much louder than our words. When we meet for church services, yes it is important to do all we do with excellence (for Jesus is worthy of our best), and to look at the local area we are in to meet the needs of communicating in a particular style, but more importantly if the lives of the american church doesn't have the light of the life of Jesus (starting with myself), we will continue to shrink.
Does anybody know where the 40% number came from? Especially given the fact that a recent survey indicated 63-67% of people would consider attending a church if someone invited them. To me that number is actually encouraging, because that's a question on a survey that isn't in the context of a relationship with someone who cares about them.
http://www.lifeway.com/article/168973/
I would love to learn about some leaders and churches who are doing something different to reach whatever percentage it is that is unreached, rather than just hear ideas about it.
Attractional or Missional? ….or something else?…
Disclaimer: this post is about a popular “debate” in church world today that you may have zero interest in. There is a debate in church world over different models, or ways of doing church. I blogged a while back about this here (sorry the …
We must engage people in the culture where they live. That means taking church to the people. If we engage in making disciples, then church happens. We have found that starting bible studies at secular locations with the intent of sharing the gospel and making disciples has been very effective. Luke chapter 10 is a great model to follow.
Thanks for the article. Really what I long to see happen is that as the box still does an amazing job with those in the box that they would choose to support and encourage those of us seeking to reach those out of the box instead of punishing or rejecting our efforts. Those of us who are working outside the box do not always seek to reject or undue the box, but we would love for support and a fair treatment as we go for the 60%. Its a shame, for Jesus, going after 1 out of the box was valid. Now, we have had to wait until it was a majority before it finally becomes acceptable.
Our organization (On Mission In America) goal is to reach churches across America with hope and encouragement. We have seen so much religion and tradition. It has only been nine months since we started and we are saddened by the exclusion and opposition. We have also seen about 20% of the churches we have visited reaching out of the box, to the lost and dying world around them. We would consider attending the conversation in November.
Christ didn't do it in a box either. He went out and sought them. Can't people get it through their heads that the church is Christians and for edification. Going out into the world is how you win people. Nobody wants to hear that.
Disagree…Jesus taught in the Synagogues as well. He was a rabbi and would have done both.
Greetings from Australia Tim!
Thanks for your post, this is something that's been on my mind for a number of years. I have to admit that I'm somewhere between the 60% and the 40% – I havent attended a church regularly for over a year after having been a Youth Pastor for 10 years and a worship director for 4.
I've really struggled with what I have seen as the Church pretty much ignoring the 60% and being totally inward focused on the 40%. I struggled to provide a youth ministry that provided for 100% regardless but found that when they come to 'church' they felt they didnt fit becasue it was so inward focused. I tried to share this concern with the leaders but they werent prepared to change. "We'll share the gospel with anyone so long as they come to us" is the culture this in a city where only 5% of the population is in church on any given Sunday. (1/2)
(2/2)
I believe that we need to do both and i've spent the last year looking for places that do this and building networks of our own. I'd LOVE to be part of the conversation – will it be online or in some other format seeing I probably cant get there
Its the same old story. Its about 100 A.D. (or 100 C.E. – your choice). John is writing to the 7 churches… churches that were once strong in so many ways – making an impact – reaching out – loving each other… but something had happened – and even the church at Ephesus had "left their first love".
I'm not a church history scholar… but I've experienced the church in three countries where I've lived – 7 churches over the course of my life… and we've definitely "left our first love".
When Jesus said – the greatest command is to love the Lord your God with everything you've got and the second one is just like it – love your neighbor as yourself – He was setting the disciples on the path that would change the world. The first thing the apostles did as the church grew was to select deacons to take care of people who needed it… (inside the church by the way – not the community at large)
If the 40/60 equation is correct (and like some other readers – I question the # – but not the premise) – then as part of the 40 – I need to love God with everything I have – and love those in the church like I love myself. Until I do that – I'm not sure the 60 will even give me a hearing on the things of Christ – and I definitely know that if I can't love my brothers and sisters (Phil. 2), then the 60 won't give a rip when I try to "prove" to them that my acts are sincere. We hand out water at the park as "cups of cold water" to reach out to people – then we fight/condemn/ignore each other – especially in a time of need – and we wonder why the 60 just nod and move on?
So… back to my original thought – its deja-vu all over again. I wonder if this was the conversation the elders in Ephesus had after they read John's letter?
My heart breaks for guys like Tim – I know a bunch… where are the Christians who could reach out to him and love him the way Jesus would? Be encouraged my friend… though you may be struggling through your experience with the church – the Shepherd is watching over you.
This is a good conversation…
A fellow traveler.
this is NOT a statement in which i’m attempting to judge the fruits of attractional ministries. it is only meant to show these studies don’t mean a great deal.
there is no correlation between 40% of people being willing to come to church and attractional models of ministry being a good method of outreach.
if — and i’m only supposing “if” because one must in order to test the usefulness of statistics like this — if attractional ministry were to produce belief in a specific doctrine, but not a changed life, no number of people willing to come to church would make it a good idea. [hear me out, though. i'm not saying this is the case. i'm simply making a point about the reality of these statistics. maybe if i were to use an example which is not something attractional ministries are actually accused of it would be more helpful. for instance, if they produced bigots and racists, etc.]
if centripetal mission is not what God desires for us to do, then it’s not — regardless of how “successful” it is at getting people in a building. again, i’m not speaking to whether or not it is what God desires, simply that a 40/60 split doesn’t necessitate the use of both / and.
The key to the answer might be in the questions we ask. You asked "how to deliver the gospel of Jesus in a way that doesn’t require them to come to the box." The beginning of the answer might be in that Jesus never intended for the church to be the primary vehicle for people coming to Christ. We have allowed people to advocate their responsibility and privilege to reach their lost friends with the saving grace of God. So few Christians have been taught to share their faith that they inadvertently have been taught that it is the churches job to reach their lost friends. It sounds old fashion but maybe we need to teach more relational evangelism and then those who will never come to the church can be reached right where they are and then brought to the "new community" with their redeemed friend.
Something 2 think about
We have a huge percent of people who have been abuse, and this is my main concern. I feel the abuse have a harder time accepting God's love. They'll sit in the congregation for years before they'll take a step forward. They want to be like Christ. They want to love. And they do care but their inner wounds hold them back. In a church that preaches you have to take steps forward to make this work sounds impossible for the abuse. They may even have tried several times to take steps forward in their lives about other issues and were beat down, put down, critisized, degaded, shamed, blamed, made fun of, used, and abused verbally, phisically, mentally, and even spiritually.
The percentage of abuse is probably higher then 40 percent and getting higher. And is and will always be my main concern.
[...] when we say thing like, “Worship was good today.”?Tim Stevens on research showing how The Come to Us model of church which has been used the last 1,700 is reaching fewer and fewer people. Leaders – what are you doing TODAY to cast vision for your church?Do you long to live a [...]
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Perhaps empowering the 40% to reach the 60% would spark this thinking-shift? I also see a tremendous generational gap within the 40%. Within the 40% I am willing to bet there is a sharp curve of 18 yr olds that struggle to successfully transition into adulthood (30+ yrs) within the church. As mentioned previously– it is not that this current generation of 20-40 somethings are less spiritual than their grandparents.It is almost as if we train children/young adults/adults to be generationally segregated rather than a unified family.
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[...] If our best church models will not even come close to touching 40% of our culture, how do we reach the other 60%? Here is a post from Tm Steven on “The Shrinking 40.” [...]
It's hard to even think about what should be said, or done. The shrinking 40% is a very visual way to put it. Stopped me in my tracks to read it. Makes total sense to still work hard designing services that will work for the 40…but really makes me very concerned about the growing 60%. Thanks Tim for collecting these thoughts and putting it out here this way.
mark
[...] to Alan Hirsch and Tim Stevens, that’s only effective for a shrinking minority. Instead, what if consistent participation in [...]
My wife and I have just decided to plant a network of cell-based house churches (men's and women's cells with regular house church gatherings a la Xenos Christian Fellowship in Columbus, OH) near downtown Houston for this very reason. Our unchurched friends simply have no desire to walk into a church building. It's totally foreign to their culture.